Using Sample Data
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Current cash position
Months of cash remaining
Revenue retention after COGS
Operating profitability
End of period customers
Customer acquisition cost
Monthly customer churn
Customer lifetime value
moderate Risk
1 of 10 scenarios break the plan
12 explicit, 8 implicit
1 breaking, 9 survivable
Gross margin -5pp sustained
Churn does not exceed ~4.5% for sustained periods.
Runway remains >= 12 months under base case.
CAC does not exceed ~$150 for sustained periods.
CAC stabilizes around $120–$130 through the first half of the year.
Gross margin does not fall below ~68% even in mild stress.
Gross margin -5pp sustained
Tests margin compression from infrastructure cost increases.
Expected failure: EBITDA stays negative; operating cash flow negative in H2
Diversify customer acquisition to reduce CAC volatility
Implement proactive churn prevention with early warning signals
Build infrastructure cost monitoring to protect margins
Establish contingency credit line before runway pressure
Quarterly stress-test reviews with leadership